Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

JOURNAL ARTICLE published 12 April 2022 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Authors: Estee Y. Cramer | Evan L. Ray | Velma K. Lopez | Johannes Bracher | Andrea Brennen | Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira | Aaron Gerding | Tilmann Gneiting | Katie H. House | Yuxin Huang | Dasuni Jayawardena | Abdul H. Kanji | Ayush Khandelwal | Khoa Le | Anja Mühlemann | Jarad Niemi | Apurv Shah | Ariane Stark | Yijin Wang | Nutcha Wattanachit | Martha W. Zorn | Youyang Gu | Sansiddh Jain | Nayana Bannur | Ayush Deva | Mihir Kulkarni | Srujana Merugu | Alpan Raval | Siddhant Shingi | Avtansh Tiwari | Jerome White | Neil F. Abernethy | Spencer Woody | Maytal Dahan | Spencer Fox | Kelly Gaither | Michael Lachmann | Lauren Ancel Meyers | James G. Scott | Mauricio Tec | Ajitesh Srivastava | Glover E. George | Jeffrey C. Cegan | Ian D. Dettwiller | William P. England | Matthew W. Farthing | Robert H. Hunter | Brandon Lafferty | Igor Linkov | Michael L. Mayo | Matthew D. Parno | Michael A. Rowland | Benjamin D. Trump | Yanli Zhang-James | Samuel Chen | Stephen V. Faraone | Jonathan Hess | Christopher P. Morley | Asif Salekin | Dongliang Wang | Sabrina M. Corsetti | Thomas M. Baer | Marisa C. Eisenberg | Karl Falb | Yitao Huang | Emily T. Martin | Ella McCauley | Robert L. Myers | Tom Schwarz | Daniel Sheldon | Graham Casey Gibson | Rose Yu | Liyao Gao | Yian Ma | Dongxia Wu | Xifeng Yan | Xiaoyong Jin | Yu-Xiang Wang | YangQuan Chen | Lihong Guo | Yanting Zhao | Quanquan Gu | Jinghui Chen | Lingxiao Wang | Pan Xu | Weitong Zhang | Difan Zou | Hannah Biegel | Joceline Lega | Steve McConnell | V. P. Nagraj | Stephanie L. Guertin | Christopher Hulme-Lowe | Stephen D. Turner | Yunfeng Shi | Xuegang Ban | Robert Walraven | Qi-Jun Hong | Stanley Kong | Axel van de Walle | James A. Turtle | Michal Ben-Nun | Steven Riley | Pete Riley | Ugur Koyluoglu | David DesRoches | Pedro Forli | Bruce Hamory | Christina Kyriakides | Helen Leis | John Milliken | Michael Moloney | James Morgan | Ninad Nirgudkar | Gokce Ozcan | Noah Piwonka | Matt Ravi | Chris Schrader | Elizabeth Shakhnovich | Daniel Siegel | Ryan Spatz | Chris Stiefeling | Barrie Wilkinson | Alexander Wong | Sean Cavany | Guido España | Sean Moore | Rachel Oidtman | Alex Perkins | David Kraus | Andrea Kraus | Zhifeng Gao | Jiang Bian | Wei Cao | Juan Lavista Ferres | Chaozhuo Li | Tie-Yan Liu | Xing Xie | Shun Zhang | Shun Zheng | Alessandro Vespignani | Matteo Chinazzi | Jessica T. Davis | Kunpeng Mu | Ana Pastore y Piontti | Xinyue Xiong | Andrew Zheng | Jackie Baek | Vivek Farias | Andreea Georgescu | Retsef Levi | Deeksha Sinha | Joshua Wilde | Georgia Perakis | Mohammed Amine Bennouna | David Nze-Ndong | Divya Singhvi | Ioannis Spantidakis | Leann Thayaparan | Asterios Tsiourvas | Arnab Sarker | Ali Jadbabaie | Devavrat Shah | Nicolas Della Penna | Leo A. Celi | Saketh Sundar | Russ Wolfinger | Dave Osthus | Lauren Castro | Geoffrey Fairchild | Isaac Michaud | Dean Karlen | Matt Kinsey | Luke C. Mullany | Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett | Lauren Shin | Katharine Tallaksen | Shelby Wilson | Elizabeth C. Lee | Juan Dent | Kyra H. Grantz | Alison L. Hill | Joshua Kaminsky | Kathryn Kaminsky | Lindsay T. Keegan | Stephen A. Lauer | Joseph C. Lemaitre | Justin Lessler | Hannah R. Meredith | Javier Perez-Saez | Sam Shah | Claire P. Smith | Shaun A. Truelove | Josh Wills | Maximilian Marshall | Lauren Gardner | Kristen Nixon | John C. Burant | Lily Wang | Lei Gao | Zhiling Gu | Myungjin Kim | Xinyi Li | Guannan Wang | Yueying Wang | Shan Yu | Robert C. Reiner | Ryan Barber | Emmanuela Gakidou | Simon I. Hay | Steve Lim | Chris Murray | David Pigott | Heidi L. Gurung | Prasith Baccam | Steven A. Stage | Bradley T. Suchoski | B. Aditya Prakash | Bijaya Adhikari | Jiaming Cui | Alexander Rodríguez | Anika Tabassum | Jiajia Xie | Pinar Keskinocak | John Asplund | Arden Baxter | Buse Eylul Oruc | Nicoleta Serban | Sercan O. Arik | Mike Dusenberry | Arkady Epshteyn | Elli Kanal | Long T. Le | Chun-Liang Li | Tomas Pfister | Dario Sava | Rajarishi Sinha | Thomas Tsai | Nate Yoder | Jinsung Yoon | Leyou Zhang | Sam Abbott | Nikos I. Bosse | Sebastian Funk | Joel Hellewell | Sophie R. Meakin | Katharine Sherratt | Mingyuan Zhou | Rahi Kalantari | Teresa K. Yamana | Sen Pei | Jeffrey Shaman | Michael L. Li | Dimitris Bertsimas | Omar Skali Lami | Saksham Soni | Hamza Tazi Bouardi | Turgay Ayer | Madeline Adee | Jagpreet Chhatwal | Ozden O. Dalgic | Mary A. Ladd | Benjamin P. Linas | Peter Mueller | Jade Xiao | Yuanjia Wang | Qinxia Wang | Shanghong Xie | Donglin Zeng | Alden Green | Jacob Bien | Logan Brooks | Addison J. Hu | Maria Jahja | Daniel McDonald | Balasubramanian Narasimhan | Collin Politsch | Samyak Rajanala | Aaron Rumack | Noah Simon | Ryan J. Tibshirani | Rob Tibshirani | Valerie Ventura | Larry Wasserman | Eamon B. O’Dea | John M. Drake | Robert Pagano | Quoc T. Tran | Lam Si Tung Ho | Huong Huynh | Jo W. Walker | Rachel B. Slayton | Michael A. Johansson | Matthew Biggerstaff | Nicholas G. Reich